Thursday, October 25, 2012

Looking Up

I don’t post often on Red Maryland. Most of what I would write can be heard on our show Vast Right Wing Conspiracy or Red Maryland Happy Hour. However, I found the need to write this because of some doubters. 


After a deluge of blue polls for Obama, I can understand how one can feel this way, but would encourage those pessimists to take a step back off the cliff and take a snapshot of what is really going on with the nation.

You will not be overwhelmed with boring statistics that will make your eyes glaze over, so I will use them as sparingly as possible. The purpose of this short blurb is for you, the reader, to have a nice warm fuzzy for this coming weekend and realize that Romney’s victory is inevitable. Yes, I am fully aware that I might eat crow, but I don’t make it a habit to take unnecessary risks.

For a reminder, Vast Right Wing Conspiracy Radio’s crew posted this a few days before the first debate

http://twitter.com/vrwcradio/status/253111739397332992

This was also before some of the polls turned in Romney’s favor. Why were we so optimistic? Because Romney was not behind in September.

Let’s take a look at Gallup’s poll taken between September 10-16. The poll had Obama with a 48% to 45% lead. The sky was falling for everybody. Was it? First, Gallup was using a registered voters screen. Although the mental titans at Kos would have you think otherwise, the likely voters sample is the one that really matters. And what did Gallup say during the same time frame about likely voters? That Romney was ahead.

That is one of the reasons why we were so confident. But that is in the past. Let’s look at here and now.

Is Romney ahead? Most national polls agree with that statement. The only polls that show Romney behind utilize a ridiculous D+5 to D+9 sample. Trash.

What do I mean by a D+5 sample? They poll 5 more Democrats than Republicans. They justify this by looking at the 2008 voter turnout. Let’s be clear, a sample that high was historic for Democrats – a perfect storm if you will.

For example, today’s Public Policy Polling numbers have it Obama 49% to Romney 48%. Absurd. They are using a D+5 sample. Again, trash. The same poll shows Romney barely ahead with Indies. This flies in the face of almost every respectable polling firm in the nation, which shows Romney leading with Indies by at least 9%.
The poll is trash. Throw it out, along with TIME, IPSOS, essentially any poll that uses anything higher than a D+2 sample, and that is being generous.
Romney is safely in the lead in the national scene.

There is also the matter of the Electoral College. Pundits will have you think that Ohio is the key battleground and that Obama is in the lead there.

Trash.

First, Ohio ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS trends .5% to 2% higher for Republicans than the national polls.

2008 


National: Obama 52.87 McCain 45.60

Ohio: Obama 51.38 McCain 46.80 



2004 


National: Bush 50.73 Kerry 48.27

Ohio: Bush 50.81 Kerry 48.71 



2000 


National: Bush 47.87 Gore 48.27 Nader 2.73 

Ohio: Bush 49.97 Gore 48.71 Nader 2.5 



1996 


National: Clinton 49.23 Dole 40.72 Perot 8.4

Ohio: Clinton 47.38 Dole 41.02 Perot 10.66 



1992 


National: Clinton 43.01 Bush 37.45 Perot 18.91

Ohio: Clinton 40.18 Bush 38.35 Perot 20.98 



1988 


National: Bush 53.37 Dukakis 45.65

Ohio: Bush 55.00 Dukakis 44.15

Ok, for all those doubters. Let’s say that last bit of factual evidence does not sway you. The Ohio polls still show Romney behind. Whatever.

Pollsters who have Obama leading Ohio will point to a D+5 turnout in the traditionally Republican Ohio. Once again, this was a historic turnout and GOTV effort for Obama AND was in the midst of a huge OHIO GOP scandal. Garbage.  Obama will not meet his 2008 numbers.

In addition, the likely voters screening is discounting those OHIO GOPers who simply stayed home in 2008.

Why do I think Romney is going to win Ohio? Facts. Cold hard facts behind early voting turnout. Republican turnout is beating Democrat turnout from 2008 in bellwether counties (Lake, Montgomery, Hamilton and Stark) by a 106% to 74% margin. Right now, Republicans have an approximately 8% - 9% net gain over 2008 numbers. Combine this with the fact that McCain beat Obama in votes on Election Day and things are looking pretty, pretty good.

Oh God, what if we lose Ohio? Obama needs Ohio. Romney can win another way. How? Iowa, New Hampshire and Colorado.

Colorado is done, zip, zilch. Republicans have it locked up. New Hampshire is landing nicely for Romney, much like Bush won the state in 2004.

What about Iowa? Obama crushed in Iowa by double digits. 

How times have changed.

Bush won Iowa in 2004. Today, early voting turnout is essentially mirroring 2004 with a 74K margin for Democrats. It was 71K the same day in 2004.

Nevada? Poll today has Heller (R) 50% to Berkley (D) 45%. Romney has led Obama in Washoe County three straight days. That race will be tight, but Romney stands a great chance to pick Nevada up.

I could go on:
1    1. Romney is crushing with Indies
      2. Obama’s demeanor and condescending nature (think H back in 1992) on Monday showed a desperate man

I could write/edit/revise more, but I have to work.
I’m out. 

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