Monday, April 26, 2010

Obama Administration Fudging Stimulus Numbers AGAIN!

We’ve heard the stories about jobs being created in congressional districts that do not even exist, and also the extremely high cost of each job created. Last week there was a Council of Economic Advisors Report that found the Stimulus created (or saved) 49,000 jobs in Maryland in the first three months of the year.

The problem is, despite a good showing of job creation in March, Maryland lost over 13,000 jobs in February and almost 20,000 jobs in January for a grand total job creation in Q1 of 3,427 jobs, according to the Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation. But the Obama Administration is claiming 49,000 jobs created (or saved).

Ok, you noticed the “or saved” everywhere… that’s a catch all for when the numbers don’t add up. But this report is saying that the Maryland economy is so bad, that without billions of financial aid from the federal government, the State would have lost nearly 52,500 jobs. Is that impressive management or what?

Of course, if you actually read the report prepared, you’ll notice it has a TON of guess work in it. The nice caveats found on page 3 that say things like:

“...simply because their populations are larger, we estimate that larger states have seen larger jobs impacts. Similarly, because their employment is more cyclically sensitive, industrial states are estimated to have had larger employment effects relative to their populations. Finally, both because of their industrial composition and because state fiscal relief and aid to individuals directly impacted have been larger in states hit harder by the recession, we estimate that states with higher unemployment rates at the time of passage have seen larger employment effects of the ARRA relative to their populations.”

Does that make any sense as a way to do an economic analysis? It does when you don’t want to look at actual job creation numbers in states, especially those like Maryland. The 70,000 jobs in Maryland lost last year, the first year under O’Malley’s tax increases, do not paint the type of picture that the Obama Administration, or the O’Malley Administration want. So they’ll point to the March numbers, ignoring January and February which nearly nullified the gains.

Ok… Are the numbers complete hogwash? Probably… but who cares about that when it makes for a great press release.

1 comment:

Duke hoops fan said...

MW -

There you looking behind the curtain again :)

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