If I can give any one piece of advice to Republicans and the Harris campaign right now it's this: Don't Get Cocky.
The general electorate in the First District has been voting for Wayne Gilchrest for 18 years. They are not prepared to automatically go to the polls and cast a vote for Andy Harris in November. Yes, this is a roughly nine month general election cycle, and yes there is a long road between now and then. But this is no time for complacency. The Harris Campaign successfully made their case to the the conservative Republican primary electorate for the past nine months. The next nine months needs to be spent getting the rest of the electorate on board.
And my Red Maryland compadre Tim Patterson points out this potential roadblock:
It's something that needs to be considered when plotting the course ahead for the next nine months. The likelihood of a Harris win is clearly above 50-percent, but it's going to take some effort to make it happen.
Andy Harris lost every county on the Eastern Shore. From Port Deposit to Pocomoke City, Andy Harris lost every single county on the Eastern Shore. The only counties he won are on the Western Shore. Thanks to Parris Glendenning, Mike ManPerm Miller, and then House Speaker Cas Taylor, a State Senator from Baltimore County now will have a chance to represent the Eastern Shore in Congress. How do you think Eastern Shore Republicans will respond to that?
Eastern Shore Republicans are well-known for being quite territorial. I would not discount their displeasure come November. Wayne Gilchrest may have been a RINO, but he was THEIR RINO. One of them.
Everybody needs to get prepared. Because anybody who thinks that Frank Kratovil is going to be a pushover in the General Election is deluding themselves...